четвер, 12 травня 2016 р.

Україна через призму геополітичних викликів: аналітичний аспект

В квітні 2016 року було опубліковано у польському журналі з політичних наук  «Polish Journal of Political Science» статтю  «Ukraine Through the Prism of Geopolitical Challenges: Analytical Aspect» («Україна через призму геополітичних викликів: аналітичний аспект», перекл.), за авторством доктора політичних наук, професора С. О. Телешуна.
Журнал включений до міжнародних наукометричних баз ROAD та CEJSH, а також визнаний Міністерством науки і вищої освіти Польщі як фахове видання. До складу редакційної комісії входять фахівці в галузі політичних і правових наук з країн Західної Європи та північної Америки.


Director of the Institute of public service and local government, office of the President of Ukraine,

Head of Department of Political Analytics and Prognosis,
Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor Sergey Teleshun

Keywords: global trends, public policy, Ukrainian crisis, think-tanks, corruption, gray area, financial and political pressure groups, conflict in Eastern Ukraine.

Abstract: This paper examines the global trends that will be reflected in global politics. Systematization of a large number of sources of major research centers allowed forming a hierarchy of challenges and threats able to influence global and regional policy. Special attention is given to Ukraine, events which significantly influence the Eurasian and global political space. The article gives an insight of the political processes in Ukraine, its problems and achievements. Understanding the situation in Ukraine in the light of global trends allows us to realize the impact on geopolitical balance of power in the world.

Events in Ukraine, as in Syria, became the catalyst for change that led to reformatting of political and regional map of the world. Significant pressure from new social, political, economic, military, informational and humanitarian threats and challenges was put upon security and bureaucratic structures of the European Union, NATO, UN and others. The obvious is that the global security system based on the principles of collective responsibility of the twentieth century is affected by a considerable transformation. This, in turn, has put on the agenda the issue of the capacity of modern political and business elites and the management establishment responds adequately to new manifestations of systemic crises and threats. The efficiency of the management of public authority institutions in internal and external policy is not only to improve the analytical tools to identify key social issues, but also the ability to form the institutional and civil mechanisms of preventive counteract against the disintegration of the political and economic environment of the state.

But traditionally forecasts are significantly correlated with the realities of life and professional and volitional qualities of consumers of intellectual products in the field of management. Currently, a large number of analytical studies, prognostic versions of the future, futurological predictions from authoritative think-tanks perform not just their main prognostic function - an objective reflection of patterns of global and regional processes, but in most cases a multi-purpose product of political influence.

Political analytics in public policy is a tool of public opinion formation (an artificial change of public attitudes, priorities, perceptions, expectations etc.) and implementation of some projections of the future or for world politics the most likely and expected models of situations development in high-risk areas.

Analytical forecasts are often (have become) not only a means of pseudo scientific impact on society, with wide manipulative tools, using misinformation, “gray” technologies of the hidden influence on the individual and groups of individuals, hybrid types of information influence etc., but also behavioral models of national policy key actors. This is primarily due to political preconception and relations with different centers of force, well-known expert-analytical agencies. Accordingly, analytical findings of many of them are entirely synthetic and designed in order to model, correlate and correct agenda and project the necessary previously ordered future efficiently.

In early 2016 the global analytical and expert community, the leading "think tanks" began to provide us with own predictive versions of events development in the world both at global and regional levels. In many ways, the most influential models of the future differ from each other, and therefore need to build a more coherent and systematic view of the likely scenarios for the future.

In addition, it is significant to emphasize that the complexity of forecasting and analytical activity caused by the intensity, dynamic processes and increase of the number of input data exponentially in the current development of the world. The justification of this is a methodological weakness of well-known world think-tanks in the matters of development of even short-term forecasts on Syria, Ukraine migration processes, European Union, Mediterranean etc. This led to a serious debate in analytic community in the US and Western Europe on the revision of established strategies of information-analytical and expert activities.

In particular, the results of the scenarios made by the most "think tanks" in the past year, according to our estimate, have come true with the coincidence of 40 per cent. Especially they reveal not always accurate forecasts regarding the situation deployment around the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine under the so-called "Minsk format", the resolution of the conflict in Syria under the so-called "Geneva format", critical and final phase of destabilization and destruction of the Russian Federation, significant decline in economic development and social explosions in the People's Republic of China, the stabilization of situation in the "Arab spring" zone, efficacy of international mechanisms and institutions in addressing global challenges (especially in the matters of war and peace) etc.


Key differences and contradictions in forecasts of the world's leading information and analytical agencies

The analysis is prepared on the basis of analytical materials of leading internal and international think tanks, news agencies, research institutions, media, peer reviews (Atlantic Council, Bloomberg, The National Interest, The American Interest, BBC, CNN, Huffington Post, Politiko, Open Democracy , Washington Post, The Daily Beast, The New York Times, The Telegraph, The Guardian, Washington Examiner, Le Monde, Le Figaro, Bild, Die Welt, Reuters, Stratfor, RAND Corporation, Project Syndicate, The Economist, Washington Post, New york Times, BBC, CNN, The Guardian, Strategic Forecasting, Heritage Foundation, Transparency International, RAND Corporation, Syndicate Project, Council on Foreign Relations, The Times, Le Figaro, Le Monde, Die Presse, Die Welt, Die Zeit, Bild, Hurriyet, news agency Xinhua, Izvestia, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Kommersant, ITAR TASS, Interfax, UNIAN, Ukrinform, Ukrainian Pravda, Day, Mirror of the Week, Correspondent, Explorer, Focus, week, Radio Liberty, Voice of America, media design channel 112 and etc.). [1]

Global and regional prospects
Discrepancy of real scenarios on the international scene
The conflict in Ukraine is not solved. Moreover, the probability of the situation resolution in the coming years seems illusory. “Conflict freeze”. The critical socio-economic and socio-political complication inside the country. The degradation of the political regime, the confidence loss of the majority concerning the existing political authority.
The Minsk format of talks
Currently, the platform of talks slows down the process of the negotiations and demonstrates its ineffectiveness in solving of the Ukrainian problem. However, there is no alternative format yet.
The worsening situation in Syria due to the increase of actors who more openly participate in the events in the region (The Russian Federation, Turkey, Iran and others, about 26 subjects and objects of the process.).
The Geneva format of talks
Seems similar to Minsk format which reveals its inefficacy and low efficiency in the negotiation process.
The Russian Federation
Despite international pressure Russia continues its aggressive geopolitical behavior in the world (Ukraine, Syria, military exercises on the borders with the countries of the NATO-EU, conflict with Turkey etc.), even under the worsening of socio-economic pressure it still keeps control over the governance and social stability.
The Republic of China
Regardless partial stagnation in some sectors, China experiences gradual economic growth, infrastructural, scientific and military development, expansion of trade horizons etc. The state intensifies its foreign and military policy.
The areas of  the “Arab spring” project
Much more complicated socio-economic and socio-political situation, bordering on the fact of the existence of this geographical range.
International relations system
The international community demonstrates increasingly its inability to solve the key problems of humanity in a short term, and international institutions show their inertia and inefficiency in preventing global and regional threats.


Undoubtedly, the past 2015 brought dramatic corrections to the planetary processes. This laid the new tendencies and trends for 2016. Therefore, in this paper we propose the own alternative vision of global and regional processes based on the latest analysis methods and research findings of previous years. The main attention is drawn to Ukrainian realities [2].


The main risks and threats at regional and global levels

1. Uncontrolled migration, permanent humanitarian and social crisis in some regions in Europe, Latin America, Eurasia, the Middle East etc.

2. The threat of global terror, extremism and weapons of mass destruction - "asymmetrical approach".

Personalization and local specification on the territories of Central and Eastern Europe.

3. Increased number of regional points of tension in a nonlinear warfare.

4. Expanding the geography of activities of quasi-state paramilitary formations - creation of new zones of tension.

5. Energy Revolution and redistribution of some regional markets in the world. Six zones of conflict.

6. Critical increase of social and economic inequality. Technogenic catastrophes and pandemia in the centers of global influence and their periphery.

7. Unsystematic civil conflicts and systemic crisis of the modern middle class. Criminalization of political and social processes in Europe.

8. Strengthening the role of national states and reformatting of supranational global and regional political-economic entities of the twentieth century.

9. Threats to liberal-democratic political trends: a global dimension. Strengthening of left-social and right-national movements and NG associations.

10. Expansion of boundaries and increasing number of cross-border conflicts.

11. Crisis deepening and termination of post-Yalta global international relations period [3].

Some challenges and threats are worth looking at in more detail, but some issues need more extended analytical material.


UKRAINE in light of global processes: challenges and threats

   Ukraine being one of the “painful points” of the new world order formation is and will remain one of the global and regional platforms of discussions with all the negative and positive consequences. Undoubtedly, the Ukrainian issue remains on the agenda for 2016. However, its format can change significantly under some conditions. This is primarily due to external factors: escalation of military conflict, maintaining anti-Putin Western coalition, financial, economic, military and political support to Ukraine. Particular attention in this context is drawn to the internal political situation in the country: the way out of the systematical political crisis, the implementation of reforms, and stabilization of socio-economic and institutional life in Ukraine etc.

In order to understand the logic sequence of events in Ukraine it is worth mentioning the basic requirements of the Maidan in 2014: firstly, the protesters demanded changes in democratic elites; secondly, social responsibility of political authority to the citizens; thirdly, effective public administration in the key areas of human life; and lastly, foreign policy issues - euro integration processes and standards [4].

The Ukrainian political class, as in 2014, again faces sharply raised issues of values ​​that would match the public mood and expectations, and fit into the framework of modern Ukraine's national interests. By the way the first protest actions of the students against the political regime of President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014 (Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Zaporozhye and others) took place under the national slogans and symbols of antiparty and anti-corporative undertone.

 The fact is that politics in Ukraine by its characteristics remains undemocratic at large. This is not only because there is a war in the East of Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula is occupied by the Russian Federation, but because of not being transformed into public policy which is oriented on the interests of different social groups united by the desire to resolve socially important issues and problems. Thus the implementation of this policy still lies in the revolutionary expediency and corporate interests and remains out of the control of civil society, which in Ukraine is more efficient than government institutions. Evidence of this is a powerful volunteer and expert movement that has covered almost all areas of Ukrainian society. In addition, more than 70% of Ukrainians have negative attitude to the current political and post revolutionary government and believe that reforms are being implemented in the wrong direction. What is more, in the process of modernization of power some corporate and corruption conflicts occur sporadically among the Ukrainian political and administrative elite. Therefore the preservation of the elite type of Ukrainian policy in the new version with external personnel management system provokes confrontation between the state and civil society and allows external global and regional actors influencing strategic decisions in the area of ​​national security.

In our opinion one of the most threatening factors, which can lead to serious socio-political and socio-economic cataclysms in Ukraine is the unwillingness of the governing class to minimize the whole list of challenges which Ukraine statehood and society face. A factor of external control may indicate a lack of quality of administrative and political elite and the desire not to lose geopolitical influence in the region [5].

In this case, we feel the need to specify a list of problem areas, virtual and physical, leading to tension and confrontation in Ukraine:

1) Inefficient public policy of "post-Maidan" political regime in conditions of the warfare and the political and socio-economic crisis. Fragmentation of reforms, their social ineffectiveness and sometimes irresponsibility. Tremendous disappointment of the majority of Ukrainians in "junior reformers." The contrasting of "Revolution of dignity" ideas and the mood in civil society to modern Ukrainian political class, corruption scandals etc. [6].

2) The change of political vector of development of certain areas of public relations occurs on the background taking into account the external influence.

The liberal-democratic values ​​and ideas are being checked on Eurasia political area.

The last 15 years were the years of social, political, economic and humanitarian challenges to the globalized world. The degree of uncontrollability and situatedness is growing every day and requires increasingly interventions and autocratic directive actions by the countries themselves both at the internal and external geopolitical levels.

Liberal democratic traditions of political and social management often illustrate their inability to influence events in the world, address new threats, such as violent border changes, new types of terrorism, uncontrolled migration etc.

Currently, it leads to the establishing declarative democratic,  in fact, hybrid authoritarian with a focus on national and religious peculiarities political regimes in countries with unstable socio-political situation. This trend leads to considerable frustration for elites and citizens, in liberal-democratic ideology in the developed countries. These processes extend sympathy to use harsh management methods (US, EU, Russia and so on) and lay the groundwork for the effect of the so-called "escape from freedom" or "creeping authoritarianism." In turn it is reflected in latest version formations of authoritarian regimes in the form of phenomena of controlled democracy, information totalitarianism, freedom of choice virtualization, the illusion of democracy. Besides, in Ukraine as well as in the most parts of the world there is a systemic crisis of the middle class - threatening imbalance in percentage of resources distribution among the different layers of society in most parts of the world, which could lead to large-scale campaign of disobedience, social boycotts, riots followed by destabilization of the domestic and global levels.

It is illustratory, especially in Ukraine, where the elements of civil society are led by the middle class, which is today the backbone of modern Ukrainian political nation with its own vision of national priorities in a globalized world. Most likely, this will lead to a serious discussion about the role of the state, the dominant political class, the big business representatives and the civil society in terms of public policy and management. In this case we can expect a compromise result of reviewing the concept of social contract and principles of wealth allocation among all stakeholders.

3) The Military confrontation in the East of Ukraine. The conflict delay under the pressure of external actors and the conversion of certain regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions into the "gray zone." An attempt to increase the number of nationwide and regional points of tension in a nonlinear warfare, or so-called intermediary war in which the hidden actors through their satellites implement various types of hybrid struggles to expand zones of geopolitical influence. An example is the developments in Syria and Ukraine, which have become hazardous phenomena in the world. Number of players involved in similar processes raises the issue of formation of the modern way of global leaders political and economic ambitions realization. Contrast of the situation lies in the following two keys: a) Failure to resolve international tensions will lead to new conflict zones and international relations crisis deepening; B) Awareness of the possibility of global conflict will force international community to work out alternative and relatively peaceful routes of  mankind existence in the future [7], [8].

4) The civil society (tension on a background of religious, cultural, historical, socio-cultural and geographical features and differences in the interpretation of events in the country for the last 3 years). Use of socio-humanitarian conflict in the confrontation between state institutions and new forms of extremism, radicalism and terrorism. They will expand their geography and increase the frequency, repetition of acute forms of violence. It must be understood that the danger comes not only from the militants who came to Europe amongst migrants. The events of the recent years indicate that we deal with terrorists-citizens of the EU and Eastern Europe.  This fact makes the threat even more dangerous and unpredictable, and indicates that the crisis of the established principles of coexistence of different civilizations on the basis of the liberal-democratic trend is developing. Presumably, the events will unfold within the concept of the "clash of civilizations" or "asymmetric war for survival." As a result of the need to review the existing models of cultural dialogue will increase and global security concepts will face radical transformations.

5) Information confrontation. External confrontation with Russia, both in temporary occupied territories and information space of large Ukraine. Information warfare enhancement involving European and world media. The internal conflict between financial and political groups of impact and their media holdings, including the intensification of the struggle in a political crisis for the mighty resources of the President of Ukraine Mr. Poroshenko, key national oligarchs I. Kolomoisky, D. Firtash, S.Lovochkyn, V. Pinchuk, R. Akhmetov, partially Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and his associates etc. Descriditation of Ukraine's information space and state institutions from the competing forces and external actors: Russia, European Union, the United States etc. [9]

6) The political confrontation between various groups of influence (at the national level - 12 groups, at the regional one - about 200) on the reallocation of all kinds of resources and joining the government. In this confrontation there the party organizations, associations of paramilitary volunteer corps, the public sector and some criminal groups will be involved.

7) The clannish bureaucratic opposition in the executive authorities and local governments with political, corporate, regional and family-tied characteristics (competition in managerial powers and functions in the reallocation of property, financial and material resources between "the old" and "the new" public servants).

8) The economic confrontation between the financial and political clans in the spheres of economy, the interference of third countries in this process. The politicization of economic processes in Ukraine.

 9) Power confrontation. The emergence of uncontrolled paramilitary groups in some "peaceful regions" of Ukraine who are able to compete with the legal state security forces for the right to do justice and to lobby the interests of financial and political sponsors. The criminalization of political and economic processes in Ukraine in certain directions.

10) Commercial confrontation. Ukrainian goods export blocking from Russia and the low competitiveness of Ukrainian goods to European markets. The impact of the energy revolution on the Ukrainian economy structure. The transition from classical hydrocarbon resources to alternative energy sources (hydrogen, natural energy) in front of diversification  of cross-continental channels of natural gas delivery, decrease of oil prices and the emergence of new global "controllers" can cause reformatting of the world system of relations between transnational corporations, which accordingly will display the existence of states and societies in a socio-economic and socio-political turmoil with varying degrees of escalation. It immediately changes the scientific trends, technological and industrial constructions in the entire civilization.

11) Ukrainian crisis demonstrated the inefficiency of the international relations of the post-Yalta world, which could be seen just after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact denotification. Global policy subjects have not offered adequate rules and norms of international coexistence so far. The expression (demonstration) of this crisis were dramatic events in the former Yugoslavia, the military campaign in Iraq, Afghanistan, the military campaign of the Russian Federation in Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine and Syria, the growing confrontation between the two Koreas, the tension in relations between China and Japan etc.

The precedential willfully interpret international law and the breaches of the already signed international treaties, including the Budapest Memorandum and others, leveling of collegiality in the important international decision-making and the law of direct force by several global and regional centers, can cause a chain effect in other parts of the world by more local players in order to expand spheres of influence.

Today there are vital needs in the context of global conflict avoidance and survival of mankind are as species, consensus-oriented dialogue between the countries and civilization concerning a new model of sustainable and incremental  development formation [10], [11].

For Ukraine, there are a lot of pro the new 2016 considering all the circumstances still  goes through unresolved military conflict in the east of the country, the annexed Crimea, the threatening socio-economic situation, corporate clan-oligarchic corruption schemes and wars, a high degree of social tension, ambiguous process of reforms implementation, state management model crisis, inter-group conflicts between political and economic groups and pressure groups, the pressure of external actors over internal politics of Ukraine, frankly disappointment from Western partners regarding Ukrainian political class actions, the continuation of combined Russian aggression against Ukraine. The all above build up rather dangerous prospects.

 Without any exaggeration, 2016 could be decisive for Ukraine. The destiny of Ukrainian state subjectivity depends on consolidation of national political power especially and understanding the need of radical technological changes in the system of governance, based solely on national interests and priorities, the general social good and progressive development of civil society.
Its subjectivity is determined with the ability to form national interests and put them into practice in conjunction with efficient public policy subjects. 
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